2016 NBA Playoff Predictions: Second Round

The first round is over and as the dust settles, we kick up our Spurs, and  prepare for the Thunder, as Trailblazers and Warriors, we walk the road of the Conference Semi-Finals.
As the days drag on, we tread strong and Cavalier, walking on valleys where once Raptors roamed. The Heat of the sun drains our stamina as Hawks circle the sky above.
Alas, here we are, the second round.

Okay, I was trying to be creative but yes, here we are, Round 2.
We’re already a few games in but I’m definitely bummed the Hornets didn’t get out of the first round and their amazing season has now come to an end. Regardless, Steve Clifford and crew can keep their heads up high because they took a 3rd seeded Heat squad to 7 games when everyone thought they’d be a fringe playoff team at best.
Props to you Charlotte.

Anyways, off to predictions.

WESTERN SEMIFINALS:
GSW vs. POR : GSW 4-2

Golden State is still without Steph Curry. The chef is out of the kitchen but the service must go on. Shaun Livingston has been great thus far, and has held the fort down for Curry at the point. The coolest thing about this Golden State team is that, without Curry, you get to really see the depth of the squad instead of just being mesmerized by Curry and his once-in-generation type talent. Draymond got a triple-double, Klay went off for 37,  and Bogut/Barnes both posted 10-12 statlines. An analogy I can compare this to is like if you lose one of your senses, the rest of them become heightened or enhanced due to your mental capacity being reallocated to the other senses.

So, without Curry, the offense is even more spread out and other players can step up and fill in the absence in production. The team can no longer just fall back on Curry to bail them out with his insane three’s and slick passing. They have to play more focused, more strict, and with more of an edge without their superstar.  Warriors fans should hope that this continues when Curry returns as well.

With that in mind, Portland will have its hands full. Granted, if there was a backcourt in the West that had a similar scoring punch to Golden State’s, it’d be the Blazers. C.J. and Dame are both scorchers to the defense but can Portland handle this new formed beast? If Curry comes back in time then I don’t see them having a great shot at taking it, otherwise I’d give them a few games. The first game was already played and GSW won by 12.

The main category Golden State won in was rebounds grabbing 15 more than the Blazers. They also had  a block party, doubling the Blazers, 12 to 6. Dame had 30 but that was on 8-26 shooting, C.J. went 5-17. If you stop the scoring threat, you just put out the blaze. It’s an uphill battle for the Blazers but it won’t be a blow out, expect Dame and company to come back swinging.

OKC vs. SAS: SAS 4-3

Okay see here’s the problem with this matchup. Aldridge dropped 38 and all Pop had to say was he made buckets. Parker dropped 12 assists, Kawhi dropped a “Kobe statline” with
25-5-5, and Danny Green found his shot just in time for playoffs. This San Antonio team is scary. Outside of Golden State, the Spurs are the 2nd best team in the league. The Cavs may have something to say about that but the Spurs are terrifying.

They had the best defense in the league during the regular season and their 43 point first quarter broke a franchise record. However, where there’s lightning, there’s thunder. Durant and Westbrook aren’t going to stand pat and just roll over, expect OKC to come back out roaring and take this series down to the wire.  We could just see OKC double Aldridge and live with Kawhi scoring and hope Danny Green’s shooting streak doesn’t continue. The 26.1% three point shooting as a team should not happen again and Billy Donovan should have the right adjustments to make the Spurs shake a little in their boots.

EASTERN SEMI FINALS:
CLE vs. ATL: CLE 4-2

People are sleeping on the Hawks. Maybe I’m just reading the wrong threads and forums but I don’t see anyone really giving the Hawks a shot being as they struggled vs. the starting super bench of Boston but this Hawks team was a force last year and they may have dropped off a little bit but they still play the right kind of basketball for this league, that being team ball. Teague, Horford, Bazemore, and Millsap are all legit threats and will give Cleveland some trouble.

For Cleveland, they still need someone else to distribute besides just Lebron. Kyrie is a shoot guard in a point guard’s body. For whatever reason, he just doesn’t want to dish the rock as much as he probably should be. If he starts to pass more, the Cavs will definitely cruise by the Hawks. If the Hawks run that pick and roll against Kyrie and Love, we can see how they have an avenue to really crack Cleveland’s armor and take a few games. All that being said, the Cavs are the best team in the East. They amp it up in the playoffs and are a better  squad than they were last year and that squad beat this same Hawks team to get to the finals.

MIA vs. TOR: MIA 4-3

#WETHENORTH. Just kidding, I’m happy for Toronto! They haven’t won a 7 game series in 15 years! FIFTEEN. This playoff win is more than just a win for the Raptors, it’s a win for Canada. Go Canada. Go Raptors. All that being said, man I’m so sad the Heat blew out the Hornets. I really liked that squad and they exceeded everyone’s expectations but I think the backcourt battle is going to determine a lot in this series.

Lowry is fighting against an elbow injury so he’s taken a lot of layups and passed up a lot of open shots. This injury forces him to drive the lane and Hassan’s gonna have a block party with Lowry. DeRozen will be the main scorer for Toronto and needs to bring it in order to keep pace with Dwayne Wade and Goran Dragic. Jonas Valanciunas is going to have his work cut out for him. Also shoutout to Norman Powell, go get it rook. Dude’s been playing great this playoffs and was huge vs. Pacers.

Expect to see big stats from Whiteside, Wade, and Deng. I don’t foresee Toronto taking 15 years to get back here just to lose, they’ll come out with rejuvenated fire. Also, I want Chris Bosh back on the court. I love him as a player and he’s such a force, I hope he gets some playing time in because he takes this Heat team to another level with his versatility. I see Miami taking close regardless.

Thanks for reading about my conference semifinals predictions! Feel free to read any of my other posts as well. Now that school is over for me I’ll probably be blogging a few more posts and putting out some more content so follow if you like or leave a comment if you agree/disagree.

2016 NBA Playoff Predictions, Opinions, and Thoughts

Disclaimer: These predictions are from someone who has too much time on his hands and are strongly opinionated. I didn’t really proofread this but it’s really, really stream of consciousness. Typed up as of 4/25/16.

With that out of the way, here’s my late playoff predictions for the first round of the playoffs.

WEST:

GSW beats Houston 4-1, OKC beats Dallas 4-1 , Portland beats Clippers 4-3.

GSW/HOU: 4-1 GSW

To be brutally honest, Houston’s lost their will to fight and there’s gonna need to be some serious changes after this series. I’m almost positive we lose Dwight and we might just see Daryl Morey and J.B Bickerstaff replaced after this loss (ALL ABOARD THE JEFF VAN GUNDY HYPE TRAIN). To be fair, I liked Morey’s approach using analytics and  focusing on efficiency, but his asset viewing mindset with players makes it hard for us to really even pick up good free agents after this season. Especially if Dwight leaves. In my opinion, it might be a good idea to blow it up (I swear I’m not mad, but I’m pretty disappointed).

Harden got his game winning shot off of a push off no call with Iguodala to claim their sole win this series. Dwight’s probably checked out by this point and our defense once again devolved into easy cuts and weak coverage. The Rockets don’t even look like they want to be there on the court. Meanwhile, Golden State still plays with that hunger and intensity which we are all used to seeing in the playoffs. Illegal screens or not, GSW would have cruised by this sputtering Rockets team. We need to really get the players to buy back in or possibly, dare I say it, blow it up. But keep Harden and D-mo please.

This Golden State team is on an all time great team type of level and yes they beat the record for wins in a season with Curry as the cog that runs that machine. Draymond is the energy that makes it go but without Curry the offense is not at that elite level that you are all used to. They’re a 4th-5th seed without Curry and a 1st seed with him. This isn’t suppose to underrate the team or overrate Curry, but what he brings to that team and his unique skill set definitely make a difference. They should hope the Clips/Blazers series drags out else they might get an early second round exit and lose their chance to try and repeat.

OKC/DAL: 4-1 OKC

Oh boy, oh boy. If you wanna see gritty, angry, salty playoff basketball, this is the series to watch. All in all, it’s just OKC being “playoff” OKC. They play with more edge, they yell, they scream, and they play with much more physicality.Steven Adams pisses off people every year and Westbrook and KD are one of the best duos in the league.

Dallas is injury-riddled and Dirk can’t carry them this year. Barea has been a bright spot but he’s definitely their best guard and that’s not good vs. playoff Westbrook. Oh, another bright spot – that Anderson guy is gonna be somebody once he develops more. Enes Kanter has been great offensively and the Mavs can’t stop him. Oh, and Serge will do Serge things.

The Mavs are a team that’s playing better than expected but we can’t expect too much beyond that. The Mavs squeezed out a win and credit to them but there won’t be much past that. On a random sidenote, OKC has a legit shot at the championship if Curry doesn’t come back in time but I can never count out the Spurs.

POR/LAC: 4-3 POR

The controversial statements start here. I want the Clippers to lose. I want Damian Lillard and CJ to carry this projected bottom 5 in the West team to the second round. Maybe it’s the constant, consistent year after year disappointment of seeing this stacked Clippers roster never really amount to anything outside of the first or second round. Maybe it’s the ever-growing annoyance with a  perception of this team being a bunch of whiners and floppers. Maybe it’s just me being a hater.

Regardless, I can see the Clippers losing. Blake still doesn’t look like Blake and he’s still warming back up and readjusting to the team that played more than half a season without him. CP3 and DJ have played 47 games without their All-Star forward and the adjustment is gonna be more than just a few games. That being said, Portland’s bigs are all pretty good. Aminu, Davis, and Plumlee trump the lone DeAndre Jordan, and I guess that Cole Aldrich guy, but Portland’s front court is more loaded.

They won game 3 due to rebounding and they were the 5th best rebounding team during the season. Portland has the tools to win and they can definitely out hustle the Clips.

Granted, the Clippers are still a top tier team and their players are still dangerous. Three-peat 6th man of the year Jamal Crawford aka J-Crossover is still that 14-16 point spark off the bench and can create his own shot and break down most defenders with ease. J.J. Reddick still makes no sense to me but I do think people may underestimate how good he actually is and how athletic he is. Dude makes the opposing shooting guard RUN. Like, all over the floor, just watch any Clippers game and you’ll see J.J. tires out other guards and still gets to his spot and drains it. Regardless, he’s injured so maybe this doesn’t apply as much.

Onto the man of the hour, the point GOD, Chris Paul. He is without a doubt a top 3 point guard in the league and he’s always been effective and efficient. He’s makes the Clippers who they are with all the dishes and lobs as well as being a great on court floor general whose not afraid of taking that clutch last shot. Sure, he whines and complains but his skill is not to be undermined. Let’s hope he doesn’t get injured again this year and we get a full Clips squad vs. Golden State.

So the guards on this LA squad put up a strong resume versus the Portland duo of All-Star snub Lillard and winner of this year’s Most Improved Player in C.J. McCollum. The thing about Lillard that I love is that he plays with a definite chip on his shoulder. After the All-Star Game, he dropped 51 on the Warriors, and dude has ice in his veins. He’s one of the more lethal scorers in the game and I can definitely see him shoot lights out and steal a game or two. It’s 2-1 in favor of LA right now but I think Portland can steal this series.

EAST:

Charlotte beats Miami 4-3, Atlanta beats Boston 4-3, Toronto beats Indiana 4-2.

The East is way more fun to predict this year. Yes, I want the East to be super close. please.

CHA/MIA: 4-3 CHA

I really wanna believe in Charlotte. They’ve been a treat all year and without their arguably 2nd best player in Michael Kidd Gilchrist, and Nic Batum whose been their key pickup from free agency and 2nd option on offense. Game 3 of the series was great to see. Everyone contributed, Frank Kaminsky was used correctly. Kemba and Lin did work, and Charlotte’s defense was pretty good.

Speaking of defense, Marvin Williams is a beast. He’s  definitely come into his own this last season and is a decent anchor for this Hornets squad. He’s come up pretty big defensively this series. I also wanna mention Courtney Lee, he’s been great for the Hornets since he got there and he hustles.

The reason I’d say the Heat could lose this series is mostly momentum and the fact that Charlotte’s guards are mismatches for Wade and Dragic. Lin has a quick first step and thrives in pick and roll. Neither Wade or Dragic are great at defending PnR. Kemba is just a beast in his own right (and a snubbed Eastern All-Star) and I don’t see them containing him for much longer in this series. This series for Miami lies on if Hassan can stay on the floor and if Wade can go off. Deng has been pretty good, but I expect Linsanity to show up a few of these games alongside Kemba and add anyone else on the Charlotte team who can score 10-15 and Charlotte’s offense is fine.

Miami’s gonna need Dragic to be effective and for the Miami bench to contribute because Charlotte has the better bench. Joe Johnson is a veteran and a forgotten All-Star but he’s definitely not in that form at this stage of his career. Josh Richardson is pretty good but we’ll see if he can keep up that production. Winslow is also a good player but he’s a blackhole on offense for the most part think like Kawhi Leonard his first year. Miami’s a solid squad, but I can definitely see Charlotte pulling the upset this year.

ATL/BOS: 4-3 ATL

I’ll admit, this series is as close as they get with back and forths. Much like the Heat/Hornets series, this is definitely a toss-up. The funny thing is that between these last four teams, each team ended their season 48-34. The seeding fell to season series records but man that definitely explains why these two series are so hard to call.

For Boston, Isaiah Thomas is the next coming of Allen Iverson to the Celtic green fandom. He plays with a chip, undersized, and is pretty acrobatic and brimming with confidence. He plays his way and Brad Stevens gives him that green light. IT has lit it up these playoffs posting a 28-4-5 statline these playoffs and a 42 point game in game 4. Safe to say he’s their go-to guy. Jae Crowder, Evan Turner, and Marcus Smart are also all good pieces and fit well in their roles. Brad Stevens is a top 5 coach in this league but even then, the fact remains that Boston’s starters and bench basically can be interchangeable.

Contrast this to the Hawks who had almost their whole starting five become All-Stars and they basically emulate the Spurs in the East, it’s a hard toss up for whether or not Boston can pull this series out. Jeff Teague, Al Horford, and Paul Millsap all have their hands in this series but Mike Scott is doing some work and who can forget Mr. Kent Bazemore. The Hawks also have the former coach of the year Mike Budenholzer who matches up well against Stevens. I’d say the Hawks irk out the W for this one.

TOR/IND: 4-2 IND

Oh man, the Pacers.The three Hills of the NBA lodge their residence in Pacerland. George Hill, Solomon Hill, and Jordan Hill. The latter being much more deadweight than the others but you can’t win em all. Poor guy doesn’t even play more than 5 min and in this series has played a grand total of 12 whole minutes. Okay back to the actual stuff, Paul George is reminding everyone what a force he was and still is in the NBA. He’s boasting a 26-5-4 statline and he is the man in Indiana. Also Myles Turner has turned out to be quite the decent player and has played pretty well thus far.

Now for the Raps. Oh man, oh man, oh man, not again, the Raptors choked their first playoff game again. Are they gonna get that first round exit curse again? I don’t think so. but man have the All-Star backcourt of Canada stunk it up thus far. Shooting wise it’s been ugly. Well, Lowry’s been good and bad but DeRozen, come on man. I like ya as a player and y’all’s bromance is amazing but step it up bro. If your coach has to bench you so that your team can win, you know it’s bad. You did aight game 2 but after that it was like what? I feel that Demar has a big game in him one of these games this series and he’s gonna show up, it’s only a matter of time.

Anyways, caution to the wind I think Toronto will win it. I believe their backcourt will show up eventually and that’ll overwhelm the Pacers. Valancuinas is a great bigman and DeMarre Carrol is solid.  The Pacers can only live off the Hills and George for so long. They simple put are the weaker team and the Raptors have better options and their bench is deeper.

Thanks for reading this long and kind of stream of consciousness blog post on the first round of the playoffs. If I’m bored enough, I’ll do the rest but for now I’m just gonna stick to watching the games now that school is essentially over for me. Yay. Funnily enough, I had a 10 page paper due a week or so back and it amounted to around this blog post’s worth of words (~2200) and it just reminded me how long-winded I can get and why I don’t write these things often. It’s pretty scattered and I just kind of ramble on and on. Anyways, thanks again for reading and stay awesome.